Economy Heading For Collapse?

[Ravin R10 man]

The following are 20 signs that the U.S. economy is heading for big trouble in the months ahead...

#1 Freight shipment volumes have hit their lowest level in two years, and freight expenditureshave gone negative for the first time since the last recession.

#2 The average price of a gallon of gasoline has risen by more than 50 cents over the past two months. This is making things tougher on our economy, because nearly every form of economic activity involves moving people or goods around.

#3 Reader's Digest, once one of the most popular magazines in the world, has filed for bankruptcy.

#4 Atlantic City's newest casino, Revel, has just filed for bankruptcy. It had been hoped that Revel would help lead a turnaround for Atlantic City.

#5 A state-appointed review board has determined that there is "no satisfactory plan" to solve Detroit's financial emergency, and many believe that bankruptcy is imminent. If Detroit does declare bankruptcy, it will be the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

#6 David Gallagher, the CEO of Town Sports International, recently said that his company is struggling right now because consumers simply do not have as much disposable income anymore...

"As we moved into January membership trends were tracking to expectations in the first half of the month, but fell off track and did not meet our expectations in the second half of the month.

We believe the driver of this was the rapid decline in consumer sentiment that has been reported and is connected to the reduction in net pay consumers earn given the changes in tax rates that went into effect in January.

"

#7 According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence in the U.S. has hit its lowest level in more than a year.

#8 Sales of the Apple iPhone have been slower than projected, and as a result Chinese manufacturing giant FoxConn has instituted a hiring freeze. The following is from a CNET reportthat was posted on Wednesday...

The Financial Times noted that it was the first time since a 2009 downturn that the company opted to halt hiring in all of its facilities across the country. The publication talked to multiple recruiters.

The actions taken by Foxconn fuel the concern over the perceived weakened demand for the iPhone 5 and slumping sentiment around Apple in general, with production activity a leading indicator of interest in the product.

#9 In 2012, global cell phone sales posted their first decline since the end of the last recession.

#10 We appear to be in the midst of a "retail apocalypse". It is being projected that Sears, J.C. Penney, Best Buy and RadioShack will also close hundreds of stores by the end of 2013.

#11 An internal memo authored by a Wal-Mart executive that was recently leaked to the presssaid that February sales were a "total disaster" and that the beginning of February was the "worst start to a month I have seen in my ~7 years with the company."

#12 If Congress does not do anything and "sequestration" goes into effect on March 1st, the Pentagon says that approximately 800,000 civilian employees will be facing mandatory furloughs.

#13 Barack Obama is admitting that the "sequester" could have a crippling impact on the U.S. economy. The following is from a recent CNBC article...

Obama cautioned that if the $85 billion in immediate cuts -- known as the sequester -- occur, the full range of government would feel the effects. Among those he listed: furloughed FBI agents, reductions in spending for communities to pay police and fire personnel and teachers, and decreased ability to respond to threats around the world.

He said the consequences would be felt across the economy.

"People will lose their jobs," he said. "The unemployment rate might tick up again."

#14 If the "sequester" is allowed to go into effect, the CBO is projecting that it will cause U.S. GDP growth to go down by at least 0.6 percent and that it will "reduce job growth by 750,000 jobs".

#15 According to a recent Gallup survey, 65 percent of all Americans believe that 2013 will be a year of "economic difficulty", and 50 percent of all Americans believe that the "best days" of America are now in the past.

#16 U.S. GDP actually contracted at an annual rate of 0.1 percent during the fourth quarter of 2012. This was the first GDP contraction that the official numbers have shown in more than three years.

#17 For the entire year of 2012, U.S. GDP growth was only about 1.5 percent. According to Art Cashin, every time GDP growth has fallen this low for an entire year, the U.S. economy has alwaysended up going into a recession.

#18 The global economy overall is really starting to slow down...

The world's richest countries saw their economies contract for the first time in almost four years during the final three months of 2012, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said.

The Paris-based thinktank said gross domestic product across its 34 member states fell by 0.2% – breaking a period of rising activity stretching back to a 2.3% slump in output in the first quarter of 2009.

All the major economies of the OECD – the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the UK – have already reported falls in output at the end of 2012, with the thinktank noting that the steepest declines had been seen in the European Union, where GDP fell by 0.5%. Canada is the only member of the G7

currently on course to register an increase in national output

.

#19 Corporate insiders are dumping enormous amounts of stock right now. Do they know something that we don't?

#20 Even some of the biggest names on Wall Street are warning that we are heading for an economic collapse. For example, Seth Klarman, one of the most respected investors on Wall Street, said in his year-end letter that the collapse of the U.S. financial system could happen at any time...

[Rhino]

While I share concerns about the state of the economy I have to take the web site where all this negative information came from with a grain of salt. Why?...well there appears to be an agenda on this site to cause fear for the purpose of selling products. The site emphasizes nothing but negatives & no positives to promote its agenda.

Sure...the price of gasoline is up over 13% the past 2 months while the price of WTI crude oil is only up ~7.5%. Refineries are still committing part of the output to making fuel oil for heating. As we get closer to warmer weather that will change. The city of Detroit...that's old news, it's been in trouble for years. All magazines have come on hard times since so many people have switched to getting information off the net. Same goes for newspapers. Everyone that gets a paycheck knows their withholdings are higher & take home pay is lower sincve 1/1. That's hurting some business like Walmart. Also the delay by the IRS with tax refunds hurt them too. As far as a retail apocalypse...companies come and go. Technology changes have had something to do with that. Sears & Radio Shack have been going downhill for years. On line stores have had a lot do with that. Barnes & Noble has taken a beating thanks to the ipad where now you can download books. Many consumers now have the attitude...why buy hard copies if you don't need them. Insiders selling their stocks doesn't surprise me either. Why? I read a weekly investment strategy written by the chief investment strategist with the financial firm I do business with. In a nutshell there's a rythm to the highs & lows and it's his opinion we are overdue for a correction in the market. He's been seeing it for 42 years. That's at least part of the reason you're seeing this insider selling, just like you did in last year before the correction last fall. For the same reason my investment funds are now ~45% in cash. Something I wish had done before the fall in 2008. Right now the market seems to have ignored some negatives, like the negative GDP that recently came out along with some other negatives. The market's been stuck in a buying stampede. I'm betting we see a correction real soon or I wouldn't have gone so much to cash. I'll probably sell some more securities next week.

On the positive side, we've had good earnings reports coming out that probably have extended this buying stampede past its norms. About 63% of companies reporting have beaten earnings estimates and 64% have beaten revenue estimates for the best "beat rate" since the 4th quarter of 2010.

Does sequester concern me? You betcha!!! Do I believe 2013 is going to be difficult? Yep...sure do! Another thing that concerns me is the rate the fed has been printing money. Their quantitative easy plan to print money & buy bonds. The money printing has made our savings worth about $0.75/dollar since they started it.

Yep I believe 2013 is going to be a tough time. Probably 2014 too and good chance times will be that way until the powers in control are changed. I could be wrong but I'm not ready to build a bunker and stock it with survival supplies, food, seed banks, & arms. Just my $.02.

[redkneck]

Gotta agree with Al, looks like a real agenda there, though I paint no rosey picture for 2013 myself.

I can't believe they even mention that reader's digest is filing for bankruptcy, lmao! There's a real sign of the apocalypse! Everyone I know subscribes to print versions of that!

:clown:

[Ravin R10 man]

I didnt buy any products while reading it..I dont know of many who buy readers digest either..just thought it food for though,t nothing more

[stevebeilgard]

i think we are in for a major fall. if you follow the signs of fall in the past, it's all here. i also see another downgrade in our money THIS YEAR. of course, just my opinion.

unless they get a grip in washington, a very highly doubtful scenario, we're going down.

[Ravin R10 man]

Steve, I'm hearing that by 2014 into 2015 we are heading for a total economic crash...it's far too late to avoid it..we are such a Nanny state , with millions of illegals now coming on board...free cell phones, plus all the other welfare benefits..

.used to be you worked for a living and earned your keep..now you can get it all for voting Demecratic

[Adjam5]

How can anyone vote against Santa Claus? That is what this gov is to the people with no skin in the game. This country is diggin a very deep hole with the entitlements.

I for one, am not stocking up on supplies and building a bunker either. I am having my neighbors do that. I am telling them to stay away from guns...they are dangerous. I'll just take what is theirs come time because they will have NO guns:yes:...lol.

[colorado bob]

Sounds like Chicken Little.

[Ravin R10 man]

Unfortunaltly we have many that wont see it coming...hard to do with your head stuck in the sand

[colorado bob]

Or somewhere else.

[Ravin R10 man]

Or somewhere else.

Yup

[The Bug House]

or somewhere else.

bwahahaha!

[wtnhunt]

Dunno about all the stuff you copied there Martin, would agree with Al. I do however see where this country is in a situation that most certainly is not good, worse economic position we have been in in my lifetime, should be concering to everyone in this country even those taking the handouts. The bottom is gonna fall out at some point, don't know if we will make it to another presidential election before it happens at the rate obama is spending.

[The Bug House]

We should be looking forward to the Federal Budget Sequestration;

"The Cato Institute, makes the case that sequestration represents a more realistic approach toward cutting the deficit than any possible action by Congress."

Embracing Sequestration | The American Conservative

[Ravin R10 man]

Let it happen..it's a miniscule start toward cutting..we will not even notice the cuts it's such a small amount...

Our "so called" president should be leading the way with budget cuts, not blaming people for it actually happening.

[LETMGROW]

With a leader???? who has never met a crisis he didn't like and a bunch of blithering idiots for a cabinet what could anyone expect?

This spend happy community organizer has to be stopped. 8 days traveling across the country to whine about the fiscal downfall when he could be in the Capitol working on the problem does not sit well with me.

$50,000,000 to hire a Wall St. firm to advertise and promote Obamacare? What the H***?

When will this madness end?

Then California passes legislation authorizing more food stamp benefits for receipents to buy feed for pets.

WOW!

Lynn

[Ravin R10 man]

Then California passes legislation authorizing more food stamp benefits for receipents to buy feed for pets.

well at least we know the Hmung population will not be using them

[Ravin R10 man]

Then California passes legislation authorizing more food stamp benefits for receipents to buy feed for pets.

well at least we know the Hmung population will not be using them

Obamma scare will cost 6.2 TRILLION...I remember him saying .."It wont cost a DIME"..or I wouldnt sign it into law....LIAR

Edited February 28, 2013 by Mathews XT Man

[LETMGROW]

I watch too much news.

It was said tonight the US is sending body armor, munitions and armored vehicles to Syria. These plans while huge cutbacks are in order for our own military.

Then it was said Wall St. came within 100 of an all time high today. How is this possible with a total economic collapse expected with a couple days?

UGH!

Lynn

[Ravin R10 man]

It was said tonight the US is sending body armor, munitions and armored vehicles to Syria - See more at: http://www.realtree.com/forums/lounge/111290-economy-heading-collapse-2.html#post1325861

The "sequester" cant be that bad huh?

[Dawg]

While I share concerns about the state of the economy I have to take the web site where all this negative information came from with a grain of salt. Why?...well there appears to be an agenda on this site to cause fear for the purpose of selling products. The site emphasizes nothing but negatives & no positives to promote its agenda.

Sure...the price of gasoline is up over 13% the past 2 months while the price of WTI crude oil is only up ~7.5%. Refineries are still committing part of the output to making fuel oil for heating. As we get closer to warmer weather that will change. The city of Detroit...that's old news, it's been in trouble for years. All magazines have come on hard times since so many people have switched to getting information off the net. Same goes for newspapers. Everyone that gets a paycheck knows their withholdings are higher & take home pay is lower sincve 1/1. That's hurting some business like Walmart. Also the delay by the IRS with tax refunds hurt them too. As far as a retail apocalypse...companies come and go. Technology changes have had something to do with that. Sears & Radio Shack have been going downhill for years. On line stores have had a lot do with that. Barnes & Noble has taken a beating thanks to the ipad where now you can download books. Many consumers now have the attitude...why buy hard copies if you don't need them. Insiders selling their stocks doesn't surprise me either. Why? I read a weekly investment strategy written by the chief investment strategist with the financial firm I do business with. In a nutshell there's a rythm to the highs & lows and it's his opinion we are overdue for a correction in the market. He's been seeing it for 42 years. That's at least part of the reason you're seeing this insider selling, just like you did in last year before the correction last fall. For the same reason my investment funds are now ~45% in cash. Something I wish had done before the fall in 2008. Right now the market seems to have ignored some negatives, like the negative GDP that recently came out along with some other negatives. The market's been stuck in a buying stampede. I'm betting we see a correction real soon or I wouldn't have gone so much to cash. I'll probably sell some more securities next week.

On the positive side, we've had good earnings reports coming out that probably have extended this buying stampede past its norms. About 63% of companies reporting have beaten earnings estimates and 64% have beaten revenue estimates for the best "beat rate" since the 4th quarter of 2010.

Does sequester concern me? You betcha!!! Do I believe 2013 is going to be difficult? Yep...sure do! Another thing that concerns me is the rate the fed has been printing money. Their quantitative easy plan to print money & buy bonds. The money printing has made our savings worth about $0.75/dollar since they started it.

Yep I believe 2013 is going to be a tough time. Probably 2014 too and good chance times will be that way until the powers in control are changed. I could be wrong but I'm not ready to build a bunker and stock it with survival supplies, food, seed banks, & arms. Just my $.02.

Agreed. Very well put Al.

I stopped reading when I got to the iPhone sales......if iPhone sales are a determining factor of our economic stability then we are past the point of no return.

I'm thinking of going into the tinfoil hat business. Talk about a gold mine these days!

[M2M]

Stop!

Stop it! I cant take it... you're scaring the children too!

Edited March 5, 2013 by M2M

[colorado bob]

Good time to get out of the market.----It closed at all time high today. Bob

[Ravin R10 man]

just like at the Casino..which I do not go to...Id pull it before it comes crashing down..land prices are the same thing high prices are right now

[Rhino]

Not everything is at all time highs even though the Dow is. 8 out of the 20 remaining positions I own in the market are in the red. However, I'm now at ~50% in cash. Told ya I was going to sell more. Probably going more to cash on some others soon too. BTW...during my last conversation with my financial advisor, he told me some of his other clients are starting to do the same thing.

BTW...Louisiana is cracking down on food stamp abuse. I was at my business partners house in Lafayette this weekend and the Sunday paper had an artilce about the crack down. Appears a lot of food stamps are being exchanged for cash. About time someone started cracking down on the abuse.